I bet the implementation follows an optimization approach (maximum likelihood or minimize mean squared error). ![]() Unfortunately, I have not found any details on my question, i.e., which approach Excel's FORECAST.ETS takes to calculate the smoothing parameters. ![]() I was searching the Microsoft Documentation website as you suggested. If that is the case, you'd probably want to checkout our Microsoft Documentation website which host extensive and detailed documentations on such tops.Īpologies for the late reply. We understand that you're looking for additional information with regards to FORECAST.ETS besides that support article you referred on your post above. Is there a reference explaining which approach is used in FORECAST.ETS?įirst and foremost, thanks for reaching out to our Microsoft Community Forum and please accept our sincerest hope that all is well. There exist multiple approaches on how to set these parameters in the literature and in other software packages (see e.g. ![]() These parameters are shown in the function, but it's unclear how Excel calculates them. However, I did not found any reference which specific approach is applied to determine the base, trend and seasonality parameters Alpha, Beta, Gamma? It is clear that FORECAST.ETS uses an AAA version of the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm.
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